Analysts Identified Three Key Signals for Bitcoin’s Next Move

Published: August 26, 2026 – 14:58 UTC

According to experts, three factors will influence bitcoin’s next move.
The market is awaiting the PCE release, Nvidia’s earnings report, and a speech by the Fed chair in Jackson Hole.
Hotter-than-expected inflation data could increase pressure on the crypto market, while a strong Nvidia report could support investors’ appetite for risk assets.

Bitcoin, after a recent sharp rally, is now facing three key macroeconomic events that could shape the asset’s next move through the end of this week, CoinDesk reports. These include the July PCE inflation report in the US, Nvidia’s financial results, and a speech by the Fed chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. Against this backdrop, analysts continue to assess the prospects for a new bitcoin bull cycle.

PCE Could Shift Expectations for the Fed’s Rate Path

The first key factor will be the release of July PCE — the main inflation gauge the US Fed focuses on.

According to the FactSet consensus forecast, core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, could come in at 3.2% year over year and 0.18% month over month. In June, those readings were 3.3% and 0.13%, respectively.

Hotter-than-expected data could amplify concerns about a potential Fed rate hike and add further pressure on bitcoin and the broader crypto market. After a seven-day climb above $80,000, the leading cryptocurrency has already pulled back below $79,000, and technical indicators point to overbought conditions.

According to data from CME FedWatch, at the time of writing the market is pricing in a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September.

Probability estimate for the Fed’s rate move. Source: CME FedWatch.

“Attention is now on July PCE inflation and Q2 GDP data, followed by Jackson Hole,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian crypto exchange Giottus.

According to him, the market is currently pricing in roughly a 60% probability that the Fed will keep the rate at 3.50%–3.75% in September.

Subburaj also urged investors not to chase bitcoin’s recent rally and instead use gradual entries, small position sizes, and controlled leverage.

Nvidia Results Could Affect Risk Appetite

The second key factor will be Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings. The company, one of the main indicators of demand for AI infrastructure, will release its report after the close on Wednesday.

Strong results could ease concerns about massive, debt-funded AI capex and support investors’ appetite for risk assets.

This could matter for bitcoin as well. According to TradingView, the 90-day correlation between the leading cryptocurrency and Nvidia shares has mostly remained positive and has been above 0.5 since the start of 2025.

At the same time, the crypto market has already received a strong boost after bitcoin climbed from around $63,000 to $79,000 in the week of August 17–23. This became the asset’s largest weekly gain in dollar terms in its entire history.

In the view of Strive CEO Matt Cole, the next cycle could be the “strongest” in bitcoin’s history. He also noted that the asset has broken out not only against the dollar, but also against gold.

Jackson Hole Could Shape the Fed’s Next Policy Steps

The third catalyst will be a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28.

Investors will closely watch his stance following the recent plan by the US Treasury Secretary to increase buybacks of long-term bonds. The Treasury is trying to curb the rise in government bond yields, while Warsh has previously argued that the market should determine their value.

A potential signal on the Fed’s next policy steps could determine whether the momentum that helped bitcoin rise above $80,000 will hold.

Analysts’ assessments also support the continuation of the bull trend. After breaking out of a six-week trading range, Wintermute revised its outlook on bitcoin to bullish. At the same time, to confirm the new market regime, CryptoQuant estimates the asset needs to hold above the 365-day moving average — around $83,000.

Additional optimism comes from the Bernstein forecast. Analysts expect bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and around $300,000 at the peak of the next cycle in 2029.

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Source: Incrypted