Bernstein Said the Market Has Not Priced in Possible Progress on the CLARITY Act

• Bernstein analysts believe the CLARITY Act could see more progress than the market expected.
• In their view, any positive surprise on the bill is “definitely not priced in.”
• The vote on the bill will take place during a busy week, when the market is also awaiting the Fed’s decision.

Bernstein analysts said progress on the CLARITY Act could come in stronger than the market’s consensus expectations, The Block reports. They said this is due to Republican concessions on ethics issues and concerns from local banks.

The experts, led by Gautam Chhugani, believe the market is currently leaning toward a negative scenario ahead of the vote on the bill and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision. Bernstein noted that any positive surprise on the CLARITY Act is “definitely not priced in.”

The analysts called the ethics proposal “likely the best possible.” They are referring to the White House agreeing to give state attorneys general a role in enforcing the restrictions, as well as provisions tied to divesting crypto assets or placing them into a blind trust.

Bernstein believes these concessions could be enough to win support for the bill from some Democrats. That keeps the door open for last-minute negotiations ahead of the final vote.

The analysts also noted that a failure of the CLARITY Act would be the worst-case scenario, including for the banking lobby. In their view, the latest version of the bill gives banks protective mechanisms around stablecoin yields and the risk of deposit outflows during a potential banking crisis.

Bernstein added that it will be a busy week for the market. The vote on the CLARITY Act will be followed by the Fed’s rate decision. They estimate that a combination of a hawkish stance from the regulator and the bill failing could lead to a significant drawdown, while a positive outcome could trigger a strong move in crypto assets and shares of sector companies.

What Is Known About the Final Version of the CLARITY Act

Senators Cynthia Lummis, John Boozman, and Tim Scott unveiled the final version of the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill ahead of a procedural vote on September 15, 2026.

The document includes 126 amendments proposed by Democrats, including ethics provisions from a package put forward by Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego.

According to the Senate schedule, the procedural vote on H.R.3633 — the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — is set to take place on September 15 at 2:15 p.m. local time.

Earlier, Lummis warned that if the current attempt fails, passage of the bill could be pushed back until 2030.

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