Bitwise: Bitcoin Is Increasingly Behaving Like Digital Gold

• The three-month correlation between bitcoin and gold has reached its highest level since 2020.
• During the recent rally, bitcoin gained 22.4% over the week, while gold rose by about 5%.
• Bitwise believes bitcoin is gradually showing safe-haven characteristics amid risks of dollar devaluation.

Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like digital gold, said André Dragosch, Bitwise’s head of research in Europe. According to him, the three-month rolling correlation between the two assets has reached its highest level in nearly six years.

Bitcoin and Gold Have Started Moving More in Sync

Dragosch noted that August was an important month for macro markets. Against the backdrop of rising yields on 10- and 30-year US Treasuries, the country’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped into the market to increase purchases of long-term bonds.

After that, bitcoin posted its biggest weekly gain since March 2024, rising 22.4%. At the same time, gold climbed by about 5% over the period, while the stock market fell, the expert said.

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According to Dragosch, the last time such a high correlation between bitcoin and gold was seen was in 2020, following massive fiscal and monetary stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Thus, two periods of significant government intervention in the macroeconomic environment were accompanied by a simultaneous strengthening of the link between bitcoin and gold, the analyst emphasized.

Meanwhile, bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market fell to its lowest level in a year, pointing to a divergence in the performance of bitcoin and equities.

Dragosch also pointed to a significantly negative correlation between bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY). According to him, this means that factors putting pressure on the dollar can simultaneously support bitcoin and gold.

Against this backdrop, the thesis that bitcoin is purely a risky tech asset is increasingly being challenged by how it behaves during major macroeconomic shifts, he added.

Bitcoin could become an alternative to gold

Dragos stressed that bitcoin and gold are not the same assets. Gold has a track record as a store of value spanning millennia, while bitcoin has existed for less than 20 years.

According to him, when macroeconomic factors fade into the background, the performance of the two assets can differ significantly. However, during major economic shifts, investors may use them in tandem to hedge against currency debasement risks.

Dragos noted that the gold market is valued at around $30 trillion and is shaped by the participation of central banks, sovereign institutions, and large capital allocators. This pool of capital far exceeds the venture and crypto capital that largely drove bitcoin’s price in its early years.

In his view, if bitcoin continues to move from the risk-asset category toward assets used to hedge against currency debasement, it could reshape the demand structure for the leading cryptocurrency.

Dragos said bitcoin spent its first 15 years primarily as a risk asset. If the current trend of correlation with gold holds, the next 15 years could see a different demand structure.

As a reminder, earlier CZ said that bitcoin could overtake gold during the next bull market.

Сообщение Bitwise: Bitcoin Is Increasingly Behaving Like Digital Gold появились сначала на INCRYPTED.