Nike Stock Falls to a 12-Year Low: Why Investors Still See a Rebound Ahead

Nike stock rebound talk is picking up again, even though NKE just fell to a 12-year low. Nike closed at $39.09 on Monday, down 4.03%, marking its weakest finish since September 2014 and sitting nearly 78% below its $169.74 record from November 2021. That is basically why Nike stock is down today, and it also explains why the stock price and the Nike stock forecast are getting so much attention right now. A stock rebound is still possible, at least on paper, but it really depends on whether CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan can fix wholesale relationships, digital sales, and China demand before the stock slides even further.

Nike Stock Rebound: Price, Forecast And Turnaround Outlook

Why Nike Stock Is Down Today

The reasons behind the drop actually matter a lot for any Nike stock rebound bet, and they start with the numbers themselves. Nike lost more than 4% on Monday, and shares fell below $40 for the first time since 2014, according to Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace data. The company is worth about $58 billion right now, which is a small fraction of the near $255 billion it carried back at its 2021 peak. Fiscal fourth quarter revenue fell about 1% to $11.0 billion, digital sales dropped 26%, and China sales fell 12% as well. First quarter revenue should also fall by a low to mid single digit percentage, and Nike expects earnings growth to stay flat once tariff recovery benefits fade from the numbers.

Some of the answer to why Nike stock is down today actually goes back further than this one earnings cycle, too. Nike is a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock, and investors usually buy that index for safety, so a near 78% collapse from a Dow name is honestly pretty rare. Nike also bought the digital sneaker studio RTFKT back in December 2021, just five weeks after its record close, and it shut the studio down in early 2025. Collectors have since sued the company for $5 million over it.

Nike Stock Price And Forecast

The Nike stock price closed near $39.09 on Monday and edged up about 0.33% in overnight trading, which is a pretty small bounce given everything else going on. Shares carry a forward dividend yield of 4.03% and a price to earnings ratio near 19.35 at the time of writing. Wall Street’s average one year target sits around $50.66, and that would be real upside if the Nike stock forecast holds up and this Nike stock rebound plays out the way bulls hope. A lot of that also rests on Elliott Hill, who has spent his time as CEO rebuilding wholesale ties after years of an aggressive direct-to-consumer push, and who recently replaced Nike’s CFO too, as part of a bigger shake-up.

Retail sentiment is honestly already ahead of the professional Nike stock forecast on this one, and it kind of always is with turnaround stories like this. A Stocktwits poll found that 68% of investors picked Nike over Lululemon as the stronger turnaround bet, versus 32% for Lululemon, even with both stocks trading near multi-year lows right now.

Elliott Hill, Nike’s President and CEO, had this to say about the pace of the turnaround:

“I’m so tired, and I know you are too, of talking about fixing this business.”

Will Nike Stock Ever Rebound?

The Nike stock rebound case now rests almost entirely on execution, and that is not exactly a comfortable place for investors to be sitting. Analyst confidence has also been pretty shaky lately. Evercore ISI’s Michael Binetti had this to say about Nike’s path forward:

“No hints yet that revenues can turn positive in the foreseeable future. We don’t see a clear reason to expand the P/E [ratio] from here (from 22x FY27 consensus EPS).”

So will Nike stock ever rebound to its old highs? Probably not anytime soon, but a partial recovery back toward the $50 to $60 range does look realistic if wholesale demand keeps improving and China stabilizes a bit. Investors who keep asking will Nike stock ever rebound to 2021 levels honestly are not going to get a fast answer, but the setup for at least some recovery is there if Hill’s plan keeps working the way it has been so far.

Nike’s next earnings date lands on September 29, 2026, and that report will likely decide whether this whole Nike stock rebound story turns into an actual recovery or just another false start. Either way, it is one of the more interesting turnaround bets on the market right now.