Could XRP Actually Flip Bitcoin? Former Ripple CTO Says Yes – But the Math Is Brutal

Ripple veteran David Schwartz recently said quite convincingly that XRP could eventually overtake bitcoin by market capitalization. However, he outlined the significance of the right conditions and that such a development wouldn’t come from BTC’s deterioration.

As such, we decided to go a bit deeper into the numbers and see what actually has to happen for Ripple’s token to emerge ahead of the current market leader.

Can XRP Overcome BTC?

The cryptocurrency community has long been dabbling with the question of whether (at least) one altcoin can replace BTC as the largest digital asset by market cap. For almost a decade, that alt representative was Ethereum (ETH), which didn’t exactly come close several years ago, but there was speculation about a potential Flippening. However, it never materialized.

The focus has now switched to Ripple’s XRP. During a recent X Spaces discussion, longtime Ripple exec and XRP Ledger architect David Schwartz said he believes it’s possible for the cross-border token to surpass BTC in terms of market cap. Moreover, he noted that such a wild scenario wouldn’t transpire because bitcoin had collapsed; instead, he argued that it would unfold under significantly different conditions.

At first, the broader crypto market would have to be dramatically more successful. Second, XRP would grow considerably faster than BTC due to the XRP Ledger’s functionality, adoption, and real-world usage.

A Loooong Way to Go

Let’s go directly to math and see where the issue stems from, as the numbers are daunting at current prices. BTC’s market is at about $1.55 trillion today, compared with approximately $87 billion for XRP. This makes the market leader around 18 times larger.

If we presume that bitcoin’s valuation remains unchanged, XRP would need to climb toward a $1.55 billion market cap simply to level the playing field. At today’s circulating supply, that would imply a mind-blowing surge to $24-$25 from the current $1.40 levels.

Schwartz’s scenario makes that hurdle even bigger, as he doesn’t believe BTC will remain stagnant. Instead, he noted that the entire crypto market could expand exponentially, meaning that BTC would most likely continue appreciating as well.

It’s worth noting that XRP has actually been closer to BTC in the past. A lot closer. And still couldn’t do it. Back in early 2018, XRP’s market cap had risen to $120 billion as the asset rocketed to its then-ATH. BTC’s market cap, on the other hand, was a more modest $250-$260 billion.

In other words, XRP was worth almost 50% as much as BTC at the time. Today, that ratio is down to 5%-6%, which makes Schwartz’s scenario even harder to materialize. But then again, nothing is impossible, right?