319 Million SpaceX Shares Unlock Thursday a – 20%…

SpaceX's second post-IPO lock-up expires on August 20, releasing up to 319 million restricted shares for potential trading. The tranche represents roughly 7% of the stock subject to selling restrictions and arrives with SPCX trading near $140, above its $135 June IPO price. The first lock-up, which freed 911.5 million shares on August 6, passed without a sustained selloff. Whether the second follows that script depends on how much of the first tranche's holders have already sold.

What Unlocks and How Much the Float Grows

The August 20 date is anchored to the June 11 final prospectus, which sets this tranche at the 70th day after the pricing date. SpaceX structured its lock-up as a staggered nine-stage release rather than the traditional 180-day cliff. The first stage on August 6 freed up to 911.5 million shares, more than the 639 million sold in the IPO itself. The stock fell to an all-time low of $108.27 the day before that unlock, then rallied 35% off its August 5 close to reclaim $146.After August 20, the calendar accelerates. Another 319 million shares unlock on September 9, followed by the affiliate block on September 10 and tranches of roughly 328 million each on September 24, October 9, and October 24, according to Forbes. A conditional tranche of 455.8 million shares that required the stock to close 30% above the IPO price on five of ten sessions failed its trigger. Those shares rolled into December, bringing that month's potential release to roughly 798 million, and Elon Musk's 6.4 billion shares remain locked until June 2027.

Starlink is Carrying the Valuation

SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 92% year over year, according to CNBC. Starlink's connectivity segment generated $4.29 billion of that total, up 66%, and was the only division to post an operating profit at $1.66 billion. Subscribers doubled year over year to 12 million, adding a record 1.7 million in the quarter. Average revenue per user held at $66, down from $85 a year ago as SpaceX expanded into lower-priced international markets.Capital expenditure is the counterweight. SpaceX spent $18.37 billion in Q2, more than six times the year-ago figure, with $15.83 billion directed at AI infrastructure. The company also reported a net loss of $541 million and adjusted EBITDA of $3.538 billion. Mizuho analyst Brett Linzey reiterated an Outperform rating and a $200 price target."While the step-up in potential supply is meaningful, we think investors should understand that shares becoming eligible for sale does not mean the full tranche will be offered into the market," Linzey wrote in a client note. Bank of America's Ron Epstein offered a similar framing, describing the unlock as a near-term technical drag rather than a verdict on the company's fundamentals.

The First Unlock's Lesson Has Limits

The August 6 unlock was roughly three times larger than the one arriving on August 20, and the stock rose through it. That precedent is reassuring but not necessarily repeatable, and the first tranche arrived after a 52% drawdown from the record high of $225.64, set on June 16, 2026, which meant much of the selling pressure had already been priced in.SPCX now trades near $140, roughly 30% above that trough, and holders who chose not to sell into weakness at $108 may find $140 a more attractive exit. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens expects significant selling; he noted that most eligible holders have low cost bases and long holding periods, making the current price attractive relative to their entry, according to a Yahoo Finance report. JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth offered a counterpoint, noting there had been "significant pre-positioning" ahead of the first expiration. The stock's trajectory through the rest of 2026 depends on whether institutional accumulation can absorb the supply. Whether that pace of buying matches insider distribution is the open question. According to Investing.com, Piper Sandler analysts expect the staggered lock-up schedule to persist as a "valuation headwind until Summer 2027." The next test after August 20 comes on September 9, when another 319 million shares enter the picture.