When Will SpaceX Stock Go Back Up? The 35% Rebound Offers a Crucial Clue

When will SpaceX stock go back up? That is the question a lot of people are asking right now, especially after the stock’s wild swing since its lockup expirations began. Based on how shares reacted to the first lockup expiration on Aug. 6, 2026, the answer really comes down to demand outpacing new share supply, and not some fixed date on a calendar. The SpaceX stock recovery already happened once, with a 35% bounce off the lows, and it happened fast too.

Then a second lockup on Aug. 20 pulled shares back down again, so the SpaceX stock forecast now hinges on whether that same pattern repeats before the next big supply event in December. At the time of writing, whether SpaceX stock is a buy right now really comes down to that same balance, and a lot of investors are still trying to figure out when will SpaceX stock go back up for good.

SpaceX Stock Recovery, Forecast, And The Risks Investors Face

Why The First Lockup Didn’t Sink The Stock

The fear made sense on paper, at least at first. Once a lockup period expires, insiders can sell, and more shares hitting the market usually pushes a price down some. Investors missed the demand side of things, though. They wanted SpaceX’s stock enough that they soaked up the added supply pretty quickly, and the jump in SpaceX stock price surprised plenty of people who were bracing for a much rougher week.

Jay Ritter, professor emeritus at the University of Florida and a well known IPO expert, told CNN:

the stock price sometimes goes up when lockups expire

That is more or less what ended up happening here, at least for the first go around. Revenue for the quarter came in at $7.81 billion, ahead of the $6.93 billion Wall Street had penciled in, even as a net loss showed up because of heavy AI infrastructure spending. Several analysts also held their price targets steady after the report, and this is one big reason why the question of when will SpaceX stock go back up keeps popping up every time a new lockup date rolls around.

The Aug. 20 Lockup Told A Different Story

A pretty different reaction played out on Aug. 20, though. One day earlier, the U.S. Treasury had said it would double its purchases of long-term bonds to at least $4 billion, and that move rattled markets pretty broadly as yields climbed. SpaceX had also just closed its purchase of the AI coding company Cursor on Aug. 14, and it issued about 389.3 million new shares to help pay for that deal, adding a good chunk of fresh supply right as the second lockup freed up existing shares too. That combination left the SpaceX stock price under some real pressure heading into Aug. 20, and it is part of why so many are still asking when will SpaceX stock go back up after such a rough stretch.

Not everyone turned bearish on it, though. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas kept his Overweight rating and his $300 price target, and he described SpaceX as:

uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI

Investors are already looking ahead to Dec. 8, when all the remaining restricted shares that insiders hold, other than Elon Musk’s, become eligible for sale, a release that is far bigger than the first two lockups combined. That date, more than any of the ones before it, is probably going to answer when will SpaceX stock go back up in any kind of lasting way, and it is also going to be the real test for the SpaceX stock forecast that most analysts are working off right now.

Is SpaceX Stock A Buy Right Now

The SpaceX stock forecast from most analysts still leans pretty bullish, at least for now. A lot of people who follow this stock closely view the SpaceX stock recovery off the lows as real, and not just some short lived blip, and the case for it still comes down to things such as rockets, satellites, and an AI infrastructure push that Musk has talked about stretching out into space itself.

Whether SpaceX stock is a buy right now really comes down to how much weight investors put on that long term story versus the near term risk tied to more lockups coming down the road. If the extra supply from the Cursor deal and the remaining unlocks keeps outpacing demand, another pullback would not be all that surprising, and the December lockup is shaping up to be the next real test of that, and probably the clearest answer yet to when will SpaceX stock go back up for anyone still on the fence.

So, when will SpaceX stock go back up for good, then? At the time of writing, it really depends on whether demand for the SpaceX stock recovery story keeps outpacing new supply, especially once December’s lockup hits and all those extra shares come loose. The SpaceX stock forecast from here ties back to that same balance, and whether SpaceX stock is a buy today comes down to how much of that swing an investor can actually stomach, right now and in the months still ahead.