CXMT's DRAM Production Capacity Peaks Amid Rising Prices

China's major DRAM manufacturer, CXMT, has reached its monthly wafer output peak of approximately 240,000 pieces by the end of 2025. Analysts predict that this output will remain stable through 2026 due to constraints imposed by U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment, particularly EUV lithography machines. Significant capacity expansion is not anticipated until at least 2027, contingent on advancements in the domestic equipment supply chain.

Current data indicates that CXMT will only cover about 41% of domestic DRAM demand in 2026, increasing to approximately 50% by 2028. This situation highlights a structural bottleneck in the market that is expected to persist for several years. Meanwhile, traditional DRAM contract prices are projected to rise sharply, with increases of 90%-95% quarter-on-quarter expected in the first quarter of 2026, followed by another surge of 58%-63% in the second quarter.

The price hikes are particularly pronounced for server DRAM, with major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix proposing increases of 60%-70% to clients such as Microsoft and Google in early 2026. S&P Global forecasts that Samsung's revenue per bit for traditional DRAM will rise by 116% year-on-year to $0.79 in 2026, while Micron's average selling price is expected to increase by 54% to $1.06. Bernstein anticipates that SK Hynix's DRAM gross margin could reach 92.7% by the fourth quarter of 2026. Effective supply relief is not expected until late 2027 or 2028.

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Source: KLEA News