Bitwise Said That the Failure of the CLARITY Act Will not Stop the Crypto Market’s Growth

• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the CLARITY Act’s failure is a “speed bump,” not a roadblock for the market.
• He noted that bitcoin kept rising even as the odds of the initiative passing declined.
• In his view, the SEC and CFTC will continue shaping rules for the industry without a new law, although such a system will be less durable.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said that the CLARITY Act’s collapse in the U.S. Senate will likely have a smaller impact on the crypto market than investors’ initial reaction suggests. He called it a “speed bump, not a road closure.”

On September 15, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the bill procedurally. Forty-nine lawmakers voted to end debate, while 60 votes were needed to move to further consideration. After the vote, bitcoin briefly dipped below $75,000.

Hougan noted that earlier this year he expected significantly more negative consequences if the CLARITY Act failed. However, the past few months’ price action has led him to revise that view.

As evidence, the Bitwise CIO pointed to a divergence between bitcoin’s price and expectations around the bill. From July 1 to September 4, the asset rose from $57,950 to more than $80,000. 

Over the same period, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by year-end on Polymarket fell from 39% to 18%. In Hougan’s view, if the current rally were directly tied to the initiative, the metrics would have moved in the same direction.

He also cited the activity of major financial firms that did not wait for a federal framework to be adopted. Hougan pointed to the launch of Robinhood Chain, Morgan Stanley’s crypto ETFs, and DTCC’s work with tokenized securities.

Earlier, we reported that an onchain ecosystem has already formed around Robinhood Chain, which launched over the summer. In early 2026, Morgan Stanley filed applications for funds based on bitcoin and Solana, and DTCC is preparing to launch a securities tokenization service.

It’s Too Early to Write off the Regulatory Framework

In Hougan’s view, after the CLARITY Act failed, the main role in the short term will shift to the SEC and the CFTC. SEC Chair Paul Atkins previously said he was ready to develop rules on the issues the bill was meant to cover. In August, the regulator already proposed Regulation Crypto Assets — a separate regime for certain digital asset transactions.

At the same time, Hougan acknowledged the limitations of this scenario. The regulators’ rules could be changed by the next administration, whereas an act of Congress would provide a more durable foundation. In addition, only lawmakers can grant the CFTC full authority to oversee the spot market for digital assets.

Before the vote, supporters of the initiative also warned of a possible lengthy delay. Senator Cynthia Lummis previously said that if it failed in the current session, the next real chance to pass a comprehensive market structure law might not come until 2030.

At Bitwise, they believe that the absence of the CLARITY Act, by itself, will not stop the industry’s institutional development. Hougan emphasized that this is his current assessment of the market, not a guarantee of future momentum.

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