Two-way Breakouts and the Fed: a Trader Assessed Scenarios for Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Moves

• Bitcoin printed a deviation on both sides and is frozen again in the middle of the range.
• Ethereum swept the monthly high, but failed to hold above $2,600.
• DXY is overheated after a straight-line rally and is testing the 4H FVG at 99.600-99.700.
• The Fed meeting and the Dot Plot will be the week’s main triggers.

Disclaimer: this material is not financial advice or a call to action. The analysis presented is the author’s personal opinion. Incrypted is not responsible for readers’ investment decisions.

Market Analysis — Two-sided Sweeps, Liquidity Asymmetry, and Calm Ahead of the Fed Decision

Last week confirmed the market is stuck in a dead consolidation. The crypto market continues to methodically take liquidity from both sides of the current ranges, without producing any genuine trend impulses.

Charts are squeezed into compression, and traders have taken a wait-and-see stance ahead of the month’s key macro event — the meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Bitcoin — Deviation Confirmed, May High Still Intact

Over the past five trading days, bitcoin resolved the August question by testing the lower liquidity pool. Price dipped into the daily fair value gap (Daily FVG) at $77,000-$78,000, found no support, and pierced $76,151.9, before instantly snapping back into the range.

Considering the similar move that swept the upper boundary a week earlier, we got a classic two-sided deviation with no confirming hold.

The May high at $82,828.7 has remained untouched for a fourth week. A clear asymmetry has formed on the chart: liquidity below local lows has already been taken, while a massive pool above $82,282.8 is still in play.

Quotes have frozen again in the middle of the range, around $77,600.

The local structure is capped by the hourly fair value gap (1H FVG) at $78,000. Until this level is reclaimed and held, any upside is classified as noise inside the range.

On the upside, the chart is constrained by last month’s high (PMH) at $81,500, last week’s high (PWH) at $82,282.8, and the May high at $82,828.7.

On the downside, after the stop sweep below $76,151.9, the key reference levels are $75,588, the 2024 ATH at $73,881.4, and a cascade of deep daily imbalances — Daily FVG $70,000-$73,000 — down to the zone of August equal lows (EQL) near $62,500.

Indicators point to a lack of directional volume. The 4H RSI has returned to a neutral 52.6, while open interest at 106,580 has been printing a flat shelf for the third week in a row. This kind of compression needs an external trigger.

Scenario A — fake bounce and dump

A push into the $78,000–$78,500 zone, a 1H FVG test without confirmation, and a subsequent reversal.

A break below $76,151.9 with no reaction opens the way to $75,588 and the 2024 ATH at $73,881.4. The scenario remains valid if price returns below $77,000 after macro spikes.

Scenario B — breakout and sweep of the upper pool

Holding the $77,500 base, clearing $78,000, and developing an upside impulse through the PMH at $81,500.

The target is a sweep of the PWH at $82,282.8 and a break above the May high at $82,828.7. This setup requires fundamental tailwinds: dovish Fed rhetoric or news around the CLARITY Act.

Scenario C — volatility expansion

A spike to $79,500–$80,000, a sharp dump into the $74,500–$75,000 zone, and a subsequent buyback.

The market maker sweeps liquidity on both sides, postponing a trend move.

Ethereum — Monthly High Sweep and Range Expansion

Ethereum showed more aggressive price action, executing part of the bullish plan. Local lows held, and pullbacks did not drop below $2440.

As a result, the asset pushed through PWH $2547.00, took PMH $2566.40, and impulsively moved above $2600. However, the key condition — a close with a retest — did not materialize.

The chart left only an hourly wick at $2666.00 and returned below the monthly high.

With this move, Ethereum swept short sellers’ stops but failed to extend a bearish breakdown through last week’s low (PWL). As a result, the range expanded: the upper boundary shifted from $2566 to $2666, while the lower boundary was set at $2403.33, the weekly low.

Price is pinned at $2520.38 between dense hourly imbalances.

The main threat to the asset is lurking below current levels — the $1920-$2220 price gap remains untouched for the fourth week. Open interest rose from 2.29 million to 2.34 million at the very peak of the sweep. “Late” leverage piled into the market.

Notably, there is a decoupling from the leading cryptocurrency: bitcoin swept liquidity to the downside and left the highs intact, while Ethereum swept the upper pools without touching the lows.

Scenario A — resistance retest and breakdown

A push into the $2566-$2600 zone, filling the upper 1H FVG without a close, and a reversal.

Losing $2480 and moving through PWL $2403.33 sends the asset to close the 4H FVG at $2330-$2355.

Scenario B — close above the high and continuation

Holding the $2500-$2520 base, clearing $2566.40 with a retest, and moving toward PWH $2666.00+.

The key condition is a confident 4H close, not another wick.

Scenario C — straight drop

Losing support at $2,480 without any retest attempt, accelerating through the PWL at $2,403.33, and dropping into the 4H FVG at $2,330-$2,355.

Fundamental Triggers for the Week

• CLARITY Act vote on September 15. The market’s reaction to the bill passing in the Senate could go either way — from a positive move on reduced regulatory uncertainty to the classic “sell the news”
• Fed meeting on September 16. This is the key event of the month. The market will react less to the rate decision itself and more to the tone of the Dot Plot projections and Kevin Warsh’s rhetoric. With strong jobs data at 162,000, the argument of a weakening labor market loses relevance, increasing the odds of a hawkish hold
• geopolitics. The U.S.-Iran conflict is in the background, but the market’s underpricing of this factor carries the biggest risks

Trading inside the current tight ranges is mathematically unfavorable. The main focus is on the edges of the ranges: Bitcoin’s reaction in the $74,000-$75,000 zone to take profit on accumulated short positions and look for long setups.

The same tactic applies to Ethereum in the $2,403-$2,330 block. Heading into the Fed meeting with open positions in the middle of the range is a direct path to uncontrolled risk.

Do you lean toward the Fed staying hawkish and triggering a dump, or do you expect softer rhetoric that would let Bitcoin sweep liquidity above the May highs?

Dollar Index — Local Overheating, a Pullback-free Rally, and Expectations of a Hawkish Fed Verdict

Retrospective and current positioning

Last week radically reshuffled the playing field. After successfully defending the lower liquidity pool, the Dollar Index (DXY) posted a pullback-free rally.

Hot consumer inflation (CPI) data acted as the perfect fuel: the asset aggressively broke above the prior PWH high at 99.368 and is now trading at 99.572, testing a fresh 4H FVG at 99.600-99.700.

The main driver of this move is the entrenched hawkish paradigm in the market — in other words, the Kevin Warsh factor. Institutions are not expecting any mercy from the Fed this Wednesday — big money is pricing in the persistence of tight financial conditions and rates staying at peak levels.

However, locally the dollar is overheated: the 4H RSI has moved into overbought territory at 70.21, which calls for at least a technical pause before the next push higher.

Technical setup and levels

The market structure points to strong bullish momentum, but price is pinned between key liquidity zones.

• On the upside: the target 4H FVG at 99,600-99,700, behind which sits the key structural high PMH at 100,083. A breakout above this level opens a vacuum all the way to the global imbalance at 100,800.
• On the downside: the impulse has formed a fresh 4H FVG at 99,100-99,300. The previously broken PWH at 99,368 now acts as the first mirrored support line.

Ahead of Wednesday, the chart will play out one of three scenarios.

Scenario A — technical cooldown and a support test

The index gets a natural rejection at the current 4H FVG at 99,600-99,700. The overheated RSI cools off as price pulls back into the 99,100-99,300 zone to retest the broken PWH level at 99,368.

From there, a new base for growth forms. This option would give the crypto market the local breather it needs in the first half of the week.

Scenario B — resistance breakout and a run toward 100

Ignoring overbought conditions, the dollar slices through the current imbalance, holds above it, and goes straight for an assault on PMH at 100,083, targeting 100,800.

The condition is ultra-hawkish FOMC and Dot Plot projections, which would trigger a panic sell-off in risk assets on Wednesday evening.

Scenario C — a helicopter drop from the Fed

A manipulative push above the PMH 100.083 on Wednesday’s news-driven volatility, a liquidity pool sweep, an instant rejection, and an aggressive dump back below 99.300.

This is a classic market maker trap that will shake out dollar longs and kick off the long-awaited impulse in bitcoin.

Fundamental Triggers for the Week:

• Tuesday, September 15 — Senate vote on the CLARITY Act
• Wednesday, September 16 — the week’s climax. At 15:30, the retail sales print is released. At 21:00 — the Fed rate decision and the updated Dot Plot, meaning the economic projections. At 21:30 — Waller’s press conference. This is where the fate of the local trend will be decided
• Thursday, September 17, 15:30 — the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and initial jobless claims. Echoes of post-release volatility.

Trading Plan

Shorting DXY against such an aggressive trend ahead of the rate announcement is extremely dangerous, but buying with RSI above 70 is mathematically unfavorable.

Until Wednesday evening, decision points shift strictly to the range boundaries. We track the index’s reaction: either a search for weakness on a test of 100.083, or an assessment of buyer strength on a pullback into 99.100–99.300.

We synchronize these moves to assess entry points in the major crypto assets.

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