XRP Faces Key Test as Historical Pattern Points to Possible Pullback

XRP’s weekly Super Trend indicator flipped bullish on August 17, after the token rallied about 70% from $0.98 to $1.70.

The catch, according to analyst ChartNerd, is that this exact signal has marked local tops before deep pullbacks in every previous cycle going back to 2019, and XRP is already stalling at the resistance level that decided those earlier setups.

XRP’s Bullish Signal Meets Resistance

ChartNerd’s analysis centers on what happened after XRP hit roughly $0.98 and then recovered. The token moved about 70% toward $1.70, where it ran into the 50-week EMA, currently around $1.52. At the same time, the token has been trading between that resistance and the 20-week EMA near $1.29 to $1.30.

“Whilst beneath the 50 and above the 20, we’re simply compressing,” ChartNerd said, describing the recent price action as a period of chop while traders wait for a clearer direction.

That caution comes from XRP’s earlier cycle history. In 2022, it rallied about 90% from its cycle low before a bullish Super Trend flip appeared around the 50-week EMA. The move was followed by a 45% correction.

In 2019, another bullish flip during the bear market was followed by a 56% correction, and after the 2020 cycle low, XRP also printed a bullish flip before falling 32%.

ChartNerd argues this pattern has appeared often enough to warrant caution. “Bullish super trends usually mark local tops,” the analyst said, while stressing that historical behavior does not guarantee the same outcome this time.

He also placed a greater structural change around $1.90, noting that XRP would need to clear the $1.50 to $1.90 zone before the move toward its previous high looks more convincing.

A short-term push above $1.52 is still possible, the analyst said. But even a close above the 50-week EMA would not automatically remove the historical warning.

Price Has Stayed Choppy This Week

As CryptoPotato reported earlier, XRP dipped toward $1.39 during one leg of Bitcoin’s recent slide before buyers stepped back in to push it to $1.44.

At the time of writing, it had gone back down close to 4% in the last 24 hours and was again trading near $1.38, according to CoinGecko. It is up 1.5% over the past week but down more than 53% from a year ago, and it also remains about 62% below its all-time high of $3.65 from July 2025.

Bitcoin has been chopping between $77,600 and $80,000 over the past few days, and XRP’s swings have largely tracked that back and forth rather than moving on their own.

The Ripple token’s futures volume also picked up in August, with trading across the three biggest exchanges topping $64 billion, the busiest month in half a year.

Spot XRP ETFs kept adding money too, although the pace slowed a lot, with weekly inflows dropping to just under $19 million last week after bringing in more than $110 million the week before. So far this week, SoSoValue data shows net inflows have hit about $13.83 million.