Bitcoin Could Crash to $50K if Bulls Fail This Crucial Test: Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) sat near $77,000 today, clawing back part of a slide that took it under $76,500 earlier in the week after fresh US-Iran strikes spooked the markets.

Analysts are now split on whether the dip was a shakeout before another push higher or the first sign of a deeper pullback.

Traders Watch the $83,000 Gap

Analyst NoName is watching the CME futures gap above the current price and considers $83,000 the line that decides what happens next. They wrote that Bitcoin needs “the level that separates a real reversal from another relief rally” with a daily close above it backed by real spot volume.

Without that close, they are treating the recent bounce as a retest of old supply rather than confirmation of a new uptrend, and their downside case is blunt: if $83,000 rejects and $74,000 gives way, they see room for a drop toward $50,000 to $55,000 before Bitcoin finds a real bottom.

But not everyone is reading the chart that way, including Doctor Profit, who dismissed calls for a new low outright, saying, “I consider the bear market as over.”

Another market watcher, Sykodelic, pointed to the monthly candle instead of shorter timeframes, citing the reversal structure, a bullish tick on the DSS Bressert indicator, and a flattening MACD.

He called the setup “not bearish, and never been bearish,” and said the monthly close held above the $76,400 level he had flagged as the line between confirming the reversal and voiding it.

Behind the argument sits a rough week. As CryptoPotato reported previously, Bitcoin got turned away at $79,000 more than once before the latest leg down pushed it under $76,500 for the first time since August 23, with renewed US-Iran fighting being the main trigger. You can hear more about that in the video below:

The primary cryptocurrency is now changing hands above $77,000, having traded between $76,300 and $77,800 in the last 24 hours. It’s down almost 2% for the week but still up nearly 22% for the month.

August’s Rare Green Candle Complicates the Picture

The pullback follows a month that broke a pattern, with BTC closing August up almost 25%, the first green August during a bear market stretch comparable to 2014, 2018, or 2022, when it fell between 9% and 18% at the same point in each cycle.

It was also the asset’s best August since 2017, when the month closed up more than 65%. Furthermore, the third quarter is already up close to 33%, with one month left to go.

That doesn’t change where Bitcoin sits against its cycle high, though. It remains down close to 30% for the year and more than 38% below its October 2025 peak of over $126,000, with dominance currently above 57%.