Morgan Stanley Raises Tesla Stock Price Target to $840 on Semi

The Tesla stock price target just moved higher, and it happened for a reason most people weren’t expecting. Morgan Stanley raised its bull case on TSLA stock, and this new Tesla stock price target 2026 call of $840 a share reflects the Tesla Semi’s software business rather than the passenger car lineup. This update on the Tesla stock price target also gives investors a fresh Tesla stock forecast to weigh against the firm’s base case, which, at the time of writing, is still sitting at $400.

Tesla Stock Price Target Rises as Morgan Stanley Backs Semi

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco raised his bull-case Tesla stock price target by $20, up to $840, after going back through his numbers on the Semi. The base case stayed put at $400 with an Equal-Weight rating, so this is more of a scenario shift than a change to Morgan Stanley’s core read on TSLA stock Morgan Stanley analysts have been giving lately.

Andrew Percoco said:

“Tesla has become a credible emerging competitor in autonomous trucking.”

Why The TSLA Stock Morgan Stanley Call Leans On The Semi

The TSLA stock Morgan Stanley call leans hard on subscription math, and it’s an unusual angle for an automaker. Once full self-driving is active on the truck, Percoco figures Tesla could charge somewhere around 85 cents to $1 per mile. And since a commercial Semi can rack up close to 18,000 miles a month, that works out to $12,000 to $18,000 in monthly software revenue per truck, against roughly $100 a month for a regular consumer FSD subscription.

Diesel prices, sitting above $6 a gallon right now, add another push for fleets to switch over to an electric, self-driving option, and that’s also a big reason Morgan Stanley’s note leaned so heavily on the trucking side of things.

Tesla Semi Numbers Behind The $840 Target

Percoco is projecting 82,000 Semis on the road by 2040, which sounds like a lot until you compare it with Tesla’s regular car output. At that kind of scale though, the Tesla Semi segment could bring in around $17 billion in annual software revenue and about $7.5 billion of incremental EBIT, and those numbers don’t even include truck sale revenue or Supercharger fees. That’s a big chunk of the thinking behind the new Tesla stock price target, and it shows how a fairly small fleet of trucks can move a bull case by quite a bit.

What Could Change The Tesla Stock Forecast

Full self-driving hasn’t shipped for Tesla’s passenger cars yet, and CEO Elon Musk has said the Model 3 and Model Y come first, which is probably the main risk hanging over this Tesla stock forecast right now.

Elon Musk said:

“Since the total number of units of the Tesla Semi is still low and will continue to be a very small percentage, even by the end of this year, of our total vehicle fleet, it makes sense for us to focus our self-driving efforts on our high-volume vehicles, so Model 3 and Y.”

Shares were trading above their 50-day moving average and below their 200-day line after the note came out, up less than 1% on the day. And whether Wall Street’s Tesla stock price target 2026 forecasts keep climbing from here will probably come down to how fast Tesla can turn Semi autonomy from a projection into something actually running on highways, which is the number worth keeping an eye on if you’re following the Tesla stock price target story going forward. Other analysts will likely publish their own Tesla stock price target 2026 updates as more Semi data comes in, and each one will shape the broader forecast a little further.