This Bitcoin Cycle Pattern Could Set Up a 1,000% Rally: Analyst

Analyst Crypto Patel says Bitcoin has followed the exact same cycle three times in a row, and he is betting the current downturn sets up another run worth ten times the cryptocurrency’s price from here.

The call, posted Wednesday, arrives as Bitcoin sits at around $65,000, down almost half from its October 2025 all-time high, with trading activity thinning to levels not seen since the last bear market.

The Pattern, According to Patel

Crypto Patel posted his analysis on X, describing what he calls the “BTC Cycle Blueprint.” His comparison begins with Bitcoin’s first major cycle, when it reached $19,666 before falling 84% and later rallying to $69,000.

The second cycle followed a similar sequence. Bitcoin fell 77% from its $69,000 peak before finding support around a bullish order block and fair value gap. It then climbed to a record $126,000.

Patel believes the current cycle is following the same structure. Bitcoin went past $126,000 before entering a decline that he estimates at 69%, with the expectation that the market will form another bullish order block around $50,000 to $40,000.

“Each Cycle: Smaller Drawdown. Higher High. Same Playbook,” the analyst wrote, adding that Bitcoin is currently sitting near the area he believes will become that bullish order block. He then assigned a projected target of 1,000% upside.

Patel’s argument rests heavily on repetition. According to him, the pattern has “NEVER Failed,” although the post does not provide a statistical test of the pattern or explain how the 1,000% target is calculated. The forecast therefore remains a technical thesis rather than a confirmed market path.

The OG cryptocurrency has traded in a tight band this week, moving between roughly $62,500 and $65,000 over the past seven days, and Ted Pillows noted earlier today that BTC needs to hold $65,500 or risk another leg down to $62,500.

Others are also watching for another Bitcoin decline, although their targets differ. One of them, Tony Research, said that traders should not short Bitcoin at current levels. They expect a move toward $68,500 to $69,400 and then $72,000 before a possible final drop in late August or September. They also expect selected altcoins to gain 40% to 100% if Bitcoin reaches the higher targets.

Where the Bigger Picture Stands

But not everyone agrees the four-year cycle Patel is describing still applies, with market watchers, including Scott Melker and Arthur Hayes, previously questioning whether the pattern holds this time around.

Bitcoin has not closed above $100,000 since November 13, 2025, and SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci told CNBC this week that the next halving, expected around April 2028, should “tighten prices” enough to push the asset back over that mark. Scaramucci made a similar call before the 2024 halving, predicting BTC would reach $170,000, but it peaked at just over $126,000 instead.