Moderna Stock Soars 177%: Why Analysts Are Still Split on What Comes Next

The Moderna stock surge sent shares up 177% on Wednesday, closing at $174.38, right after Moderna and Merck said their personalized melanoma vaccine hit its main goal in a Phase 3 trial, and yet Wall Street still isn’t fully on board about what this Moderna stock surge really means. This Moderna stock surge moved the Moderna stock price by tens of billions of dollars in a single session, but it also split the Moderna stock forecast into two very different camps, one side that sees the Moderna cancer vaccine as the start of something big, and another that thinks the rally already ran too far too fast.

Moderna Stock Surge: Melanoma Vaccine Boosts Price And Forecast

What The Trial Actually Showed

The trial enrolled 1,137 patients with stage 2b to 4 melanoma, and every one of them had already had their tumor removed through surgery before joining. Volunteers got either up to nine doses of the personalized vaccine plus Keytruda, or just Keytruda on its own, for about a year. Patients on the combination lived longer without their melanoma coming back, and the treatment also cut the risk of the cancer spreading to other parts of the body, so it hit both the main goal and the secondary one. The companies didn’t flag any new safety issues, and this melanoma vaccine data is exactly what set off the debate that’s now playing out among analysts.

Professor Georgina Long, the study’s principal investigator, had this to say:

“Today’s results represent a landmark moment for adjuvant melanoma treatment.”

Why Some Analysts Are Getting More Bullish

Not everyone on Wall Street reacted the same way, and that’s really the heart of this Moderna stock surge story. Analysts at William Blair moved their rating up to Outperform right after the announcement, and they pointed to a clearer path toward revenue outside of Moderna’s Covid business now that the Moderna cancer vaccine has real Phase 3 data behind it. RBC Capital Markets also raised its expectations, and had been modeling this readout for later in the year rather than right now, which is part of why this particular Moderna stock surge caught so many people off guard.

RBC Capital Markets analysts stated:

“This is a surprisingly positive development as we were expecting a year-end readout.”

Why Other Analysts Are Still Holding Back

On the other side, plenty of analysts are treating Wednesday’s rally with real caution, and the numbers back that up. Of the 24 brokerages that cover Moderna, 22 still rate the stock a hold or worse, and the consensus 12 month price target sits well under where the Moderna stock price actually closed on Wednesday. Part of the concern comes down to plain math, Barclays had projected the melanoma vaccine could bring in about $3 billion a year by 2035, yet Wednesday’s jump added roughly $44 billion to Moderna’s market value in a single session, so the Moderna stock price moved by far more than the melanoma opportunity alone would justify. One Seeking Alpha analyst kept a Hold rating on the Moderna cancer vaccine story, and argued that investors should wait for full Phase 3 data and a clearer regulatory path before getting too excited about the Moderna stock forecast.

So the split really comes down to timing and trust, bulls like William Blair and RBC see this Moderna stock surge as proof that Moderna’s oncology bet is starting to pay off, while the more cautious names on the sell side think the market ran ahead of the actual melanoma vaccine revenue that’s realistically coming. Either way, this Moderna stock surge won’t settle the argument on its own, and the next real test for the Moderna stock forecast will land once fuller trial data reaches an upcoming medical meeting and regulators get their first proper look at the filing.