The Fed Raised Interest Rates for the First Time Since 2023. Bitcoin Held Near $76,000

• The Fed raised the interest rate by 25 bps — to 3.75%–4%.
• The decision marked the first hike since July 2023.
• Bitcoin barely reacted and stayed around $76,000.

On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held a meeting. The regulator raised the interest rate by 25 basis points — from 3.5%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%. This is the first increase since July 2023.

The decision was unanimous — 12 votes to 0. The Fed noted that economic activity in the U.S. is expanding at a steady pace, consumer spending remains stable, and productivity growth and capital investment are high. At the same time, inflation remains above the target level.

The Fed also said the rate hike should help bring inflation back to the 2% target faster.

At the same time, the Fed released an updated forecast. The median estimate for U.S. real GDP growth in 2026 was raised from 2.2% to 2.3%, while the unemployment forecast was lowered from 4.3% to 4.1%.

The PCE inflation estimate for end-2026 was raised from 3.6% to 3.7%, and the core measure from 3.3% to 3.4%. In 2027, the Fed expects PCE inflation to slow to 2.3%.

The median rate projection stands at 4.1% for the end of 2026 and 2027. According to the dot plot, 16 of 18 participants expect at least one more 25 bps hike by the end of this year.

Against the backdrop of the Fed’s decision, bitcoin did not show any sharp move. After the statement was released, the asset continued trading around $76,000 and, at the time of writing, was near $76,528.

The next FOMC meeting will take place on October 27–28, 2026. According to the regulator’s calendar, the final meeting this year is scheduled for December 8–9.

According to the CME Watch, the probability of another 0.25% increase is above 50%. Recall that last time the regulator left the interest rate unchanged. 

Warsh’s Press Conference

After the decision was released, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held a press conference. He said the rate hike was driven by the economy’s resilience and persistent inflationary pressure.

According to the head of the regulator, three key factors have changed in the seven weeks since the July meeting. The U.S. economy has strengthened, summer inflation dynamics did not confirm a sustained move toward the target level, and geopolitical risks have increased.

Warsh again declined to provide guidance on the future rate path and emphasized that he does not intend to pre-commit to decisions at upcoming meetings.

Key points from Warsh’s remarks and his answers to journalists’ questions:

• the U.S. economy is showing resilience, and labor market conditions overall are consistent with full employment. The unemployment rate remains around 4.1%;
• inflation remains too high and has been above the Fed’s target for more than five years. In Warsh’s view, the latest data do not indicate a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend;
• the Fed cannot directly influence individual prices, including oil and food. The regulator’s task is to prevent such price shocks from spreading to other parts of the economy;
• the decision to raise the rate was based on an assessment of the economy and inflation, not on financial market expectations;
• since the July meeting, the regulator has seen additional signs of a strengthening economy, persistent inflationary pressure, and rising geopolitical uncertainty;
• Warsh said broad financial conditions can hardly be described as restrictive. He added that other FOMC participants shared this view;
• the Fed chair does not intend to send advance signals about the next decisions. He emphasized that he will assess the situation as information comes in;
• Warsh argued against paying excessive attention to individual economic releases. He said trends matter more for the regulator, because individual indicators can be volatile;
• The Fed chair does not view the neutral rate estimate as a tool that directly determines current monetary policy decisions
• Warsh emphasized the Fed’s independence and declined to comment on his conversations with U.S. President Donald Trump
• The regulator is monitoring how artificial intelligence affects demand and supply in the economy. To study the issue, the Fed has formed a special working group that is expected to present its findings by the end of the year
• Warsh does not believe that bringing down inflation requires a deterioration in labor market conditions. In his view, price stability and full employment are not at odds with each other over the medium term.

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